End of the Season Numbers Updated

The Broncos ended the regular season strong going 13-3, here is a start to see how it happened.

Broncos defensive line pass rushing productivity
Broncos running back data including yards after contact, negative runs and long runs
Broncos wide receivers, tight ends and running backs receiving data which includes yards per target, touchdown percentage and the passer rating when targeting each player

Enjoy!

Hopefully this week I’ll get more done in terms of charting snap count trends, which stats predict the winner of games the best, and much more.

Broncos Run Game Breakdown – Week 15 Part 2

So each week I’ve decide to break down about three to six rushing plays for the game that week so we can see how the offensive line, tight ends and running backs did that week. To do this I’ll take all the plays and randomly select three plays and add more depending on the time. I’ll take these plays and break them down using clippings from the game. For each play we will start with the down and distance, the personnel formation and grouping as well as the result of the play. We will also break the play into parts, the pre-play, mid-play, and the end. To get a better view of the image just click on it, it will open in a new tab. This will be the first running breakdown I do this season. Another feature is after going through each clip you can view it as a slideshow to see how the play progresses with the notes.

How to Understand the Images:
– Green lines are the path of the blockers
– The blue line represents the running back and his path
– The red lines are those of the defenders
– If a line is dashed that means a player has multiple options to choose from
– I include small caption boxes that help explain what is going on, pointing with black arrows to appropriate spots on the field.

Since this is a very long project I’m breaking it into two parts so it’s not an overly long, run on, article. This is part two, for part one, here is the link.

Play 7

– Down and Distance: 1st and 10
– Personnel: 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB
– Result: -1 Yard Loss

Pre-Play:

KM 6 Pre Play Edit

Continue reading

Broncos Run Game Breakdown – Week 15 Part 1

So each week I’ve decide to break down about three to six rushing plays for the game that week so we can see how the offensive line, tight ends and running backs did that week. To do this I’ll take all the plays and randomly select three plays and add more depending on the time. I’ll take these plays and break them down using clippings from the game. For each play we will start with the down and distance, the personnel formation and grouping as well as the result of the play. We will also break the play into parts, the pre-play, mid-play, and the end. To get a better view of the image just click on it, it will open in a new tab. This will be the first running breakdown I do this season. Another feature is after going through each clip you can view it as a slideshow to see how the play progresses with the notes.

How to Understand the Images:
– Green lines are the path of the blockers
– The blue line represents the running back and his path
– The red lines are those of the defenders
– If a line is dashed that means a player has multiple options to choose from
– I include small caption boxes that help explain what is going on, pointing with black arrows to appropriate spots on the field.

This week I really wanted to show Broncos fans what I’ve been preaching this entire season and throughout this season. In past weeks I took 3-5 run plays at random and studied them, which lead to people saying it wasn’t a complete study so this week I am reviewing every run play to make sure people can’t claim I pick and choose my reviews. Since this is a very long project I’m breaking it into two parts so it’s not an overly long, run on, article. I likely won’t do this every week but this made a good week to do a show case.

Play 1

– Down and Distance: 1st and 10
– Personnel: 3 WR (2 WR’s and 1 TE with the 1 TE split out wide), 1 TE, 1 RB
– Result: 6 Yard Gain

Pre-Play:

KM 1 Pre Play Edit

Continue reading

Denver Broncos Run Defense Trends

This is a look at the Broncos run defense over the course of the season. I’ll be looking at eight key factors:

– Yards per carry in the game against the Broncos
– Yards per carry over the course of the season
– The difference between the two
– Difference between the two as a percentage (the difference divided by game yards per carry)
– Runs of 10 yards or longer
– Runs of 10 yards or longer as a percentage of the total runs
– Runs that went for negative yardage
– Runs that went for negative yardage as a percentage of the total runs

I didn’t include things like total yards because those are dependent on things like if a team is ahead or not. Teams that are behind by a large margin in a game tend to run less. So total yardage numbers are more an indicator of whether a team is in a close game moreso than ability to run.

Hopefully by doing this we’ll be able to see what trends arise, if any, over the course of the season.

Here is the link to the table and the included charts.

For just a few charts of the data, here you go.

Now to sum it up I’ve included a chart that shows the trend of defensive play by difference percentage but I included the injuries of key players as well as when they returned.

Defensive Trends

You are free to draw your own conclusions but the more I look at this the run defense was over hyped by two very strong games. While losing two starters along the defensive line (DE Derek Wolfe and DT Kevin Vickerson) obviously hurts, the run defensive breakdown clearly began before they got hurt.

The Broncos Numbers Updated With Week 15’s Data

While it was a tough loss to the San Diego Chargers, it doesn’t stop the march of the season or the collection of data so the pages have been updated:

Broncos defensive line pass rushing productivity
Broncos running back data including yards after contact, negative runs and long runs
Broncos wide receivers, tight ends and running backs receiving data which includes yards per target, touchdown percentage and the passer rating when targeting each player

Enjoy! I’ll be reviewing more of the run game this week than normal since it’s a longer week and the longest run of the week was 6 yards. I’ll give some foreshadowing, the offensive line doesn’t look good. I’m also hoping to review the safety play as well if time permits.

Pass Rushing Productivity – Defensive Line – 2013

*Updated With Week 17’s Data*

This table includes the rank among the players peers. Now Pass Rushing Productivity (PRP) is created by taking total pressures divided by total pass rushing snaps to get a percentage. An example is that if Phillips has 10 pressures on 97 snaps meaning he got pressure on 10.31% of his snaps. Weighted PRP on the other hand takes in the factor that whiles pressures, hits and forced holds are valuable, sacks are worth more. The value for a sack is 1.2, hit is .8 and pressure is .7 while a holding penalty is worth .6. This may seem arbitrary but it’s created by look at how many yards are lost and completion percentage going down for each. The rankings listed for total pressures and PRP is based on their position so defensive ends will be compared to defensive ends and defensive tackles will be compared to defensive tackles. If a player plays both positions, they are labeled by the position they play most often.

I’ve also include each players time to sack if they have any sacks along with how many of their sacks came when they were either unblocked or untouched.

Since WordPress does not support tables in browser, here is the link to the data.