End of the Season Numbers Updated

The Broncos ended the regular season strong going 13-3, here is a start to see how it happened.

Broncos defensive line pass rushing productivity
Broncos running back data including yards after contact, negative runs and long runs
Broncos wide receivers, tight ends and running backs receiving data which includes yards per target, touchdown percentage and the passer rating when targeting each player

Enjoy!

Hopefully this week I’ll get more done in terms of charting snap count trends, which stats predict the winner of games the best, and much more.

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Broncos Run Game Breakdown – Week 15 Part 2

So each week I’ve decide to break down about three to six rushing plays for the game that week so we can see how the offensive line, tight ends and running backs did that week. To do this I’ll take all the plays and randomly select three plays and add more depending on the time. I’ll take these plays and break them down using clippings from the game. For each play we will start with the down and distance, the personnel formation and grouping as well as the result of the play. We will also break the play into parts, the pre-play, mid-play, and the end. To get a better view of the image just click on it, it will open in a new tab. This will be the first running breakdown I do this season. Another feature is after going through each clip you can view it as a slideshow to see how the play progresses with the notes.

How to Understand the Images:
– Green lines are the path of the blockers
– The blue line represents the running back and his path
– The red lines are those of the defenders
– If a line is dashed that means a player has multiple options to choose from
– I include small caption boxes that help explain what is going on, pointing with black arrows to appropriate spots on the field.

Since this is a very long project I’m breaking it into two parts so it’s not an overly long, run on, article. This is part two, for part one, here is the link.

Play 7

– Down and Distance: 1st and 10
– Personnel: 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB
– Result: -1 Yard Loss

Pre-Play:

KM 6 Pre Play Edit

Continue reading

Broncos Run Game Breakdown – Week 15 Part 1

So each week I’ve decide to break down about three to six rushing plays for the game that week so we can see how the offensive line, tight ends and running backs did that week. To do this I’ll take all the plays and randomly select three plays and add more depending on the time. I’ll take these plays and break them down using clippings from the game. For each play we will start with the down and distance, the personnel formation and grouping as well as the result of the play. We will also break the play into parts, the pre-play, mid-play, and the end. To get a better view of the image just click on it, it will open in a new tab. This will be the first running breakdown I do this season. Another feature is after going through each clip you can view it as a slideshow to see how the play progresses with the notes.

How to Understand the Images:
– Green lines are the path of the blockers
– The blue line represents the running back and his path
– The red lines are those of the defenders
– If a line is dashed that means a player has multiple options to choose from
– I include small caption boxes that help explain what is going on, pointing with black arrows to appropriate spots on the field.

This week I really wanted to show Broncos fans what I’ve been preaching this entire season and throughout this season. In past weeks I took 3-5 run plays at random and studied them, which lead to people saying it wasn’t a complete study so this week I am reviewing every run play to make sure people can’t claim I pick and choose my reviews. Since this is a very long project I’m breaking it into two parts so it’s not an overly long, run on, article. I likely won’t do this every week but this made a good week to do a show case.

Play 1

– Down and Distance: 1st and 10
– Personnel: 3 WR (2 WR’s and 1 TE with the 1 TE split out wide), 1 TE, 1 RB
– Result: 6 Yard Gain

Pre-Play:

KM 1 Pre Play Edit

Continue reading

Broncos Run Game Breakdown – Week 12

So each week I’ve decide to break down about three to six rushing plays for the game that week so we can see how the offensive line, tight ends and running backs did that week. To do this I’ll take all the plays and randomly select three plays and add more depending on the time. I’ll take these plays and break them down using clippings from the game. For each play we will start with the down and distance, the personnel formation and grouping as well as the result of the play. We will also break the play into parts, the pre-play, mid-play, and the end. To get a better view of the image just click on it, it will open in a new tab. This will be the first running breakdown I do this season. Another feature is after going through each clip you can view it as a slideshow to see how the play progresses with the notes.

I won’t be doing as many this week due to other obligations, also since the run game was so much more effective each play required more time to study and clip anyways.

Play 1

– Down and Distance: 3rd and 15
– Personnel: 3 WR, 1 TE , 1 RB
– Result: 7 Yard Gain

Pre-Play:

Den-NE KM 1 Pre Play Edit

Continue reading

Facts, Trends, and The Overlooked – Post Week 12 Edition

So often after games fans tend to overreact to a few things and far too often those things they are reacting to aren’t trends, instead they are merely one game situations or results. What fans should be looking for are trends, those things that persist through multiple games, because those are the items that are actually part of the teams consistent performance. Here in Facts, Trends, and The Overlooked we will look at the big story lines and some not so big ones, and see which ones are trends, which should be watched and which are merely one game anomalies.

Trend:

Broncos Secondary is Weak Even When Healthy
– The Broncos have suffered some big injuries this season to the defensive backs, and have blamed the backups for the poor play of the pass coverage, along with a lack of pass rush, but even when healthy and now with Von Miller‘s return they have struggled. Since Von Miller’s return against Indianapolis the Broncos have only had 2 interceptions, which is tied for 29th in the league, they also haven’t had an interception since the bye. Against high caliber or efficient quarterbacks the Broncos secondary has had issues, healthy or not, Von Miller or not, this is something that is real, pay attention. Many will point to the fumbles forced by the Broncos defense against the Pats but few pay attention to the struggles of the safeties when it pertains to stopping the deep pass or the corners against fast wide receivers. While fans may be ignoring it, teams aren’t, as the results are beginning to show.

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Broncos Receiving Rating 2013

*Updated With Week 17’s Data*

Wide Receiver Rating (WR Rating) is basically the Passer Rating in reverse. You take the numbers (change attempts into targets, etc) of a wide receiver and insert them into the Passer Rating formula and there you go. Now interceptions may be confusing but that is actually pretty simple, that is any interception by the defense when the ball is targeted at that receiver and the WR made a mistake. Like interceptions for quarterbacks, it’s not perfect since other factors are ignored, but it still tells a big part of the story. It can, and will be, applied to other positions as well and we will apply it to the Broncos tight ends and running backs.

Something to keep in mind is yards per target (Y/T) is similar to yards per attempt (Y/A) for a quarterback and is a better metric than yards per completion/reception since it also takes completion percentage into account. I also included the catch and drop percentages which help expand the picture of how each receiver plays. I also include touchdown percentage which is touchdowns divided by target, that way we can get a picture of how often a player is catching a touchdown per target.

Since WordPress does not support tables in browser, here is the link to the data.