End of the Season Numbers Updated

The Broncos ended the regular season strong going 13-3, here is a start to see how it happened.

Broncos defensive line pass rushing productivity
Broncos running back data including yards after contact, negative runs and long runs
Broncos wide receivers, tight ends and running backs receiving data which includes yards per target, touchdown percentage and the passer rating when targeting each player


Hopefully this week I’ll get more done in terms of charting snap count trends, which stats predict the winner of games the best, and much more.


Denver Broncos Run Defense Trends

This is a look at the Broncos run defense over the course of the season. I’ll be looking at eight key factors:

– Yards per carry in the game against the Broncos
– Yards per carry over the course of the season
– The difference between the two
– Difference between the two as a percentage (the difference divided by game yards per carry)
– Runs of 10 yards or longer
– Runs of 10 yards or longer as a percentage of the total runs
– Runs that went for negative yardage
– Runs that went for negative yardage as a percentage of the total runs

I didn’t include things like total yards because those are dependent on things like if a team is ahead or not. Teams that are behind by a large margin in a game tend to run less. So total yardage numbers are more an indicator of whether a team is in a close game moreso than ability to run.

Hopefully by doing this we’ll be able to see what trends arise, if any, over the course of the season.

Here is the link to the table and the included charts.

For just a few charts of the data, here you go.

Now to sum it up I’ve included a chart that shows the trend of defensive play by difference percentage but I included the injuries of key players as well as when they returned.

Defensive Trends

You are free to draw your own conclusions but the more I look at this the run defense was over hyped by two very strong games. While losing two starters along the defensive line (DE Derek Wolfe and DT Kevin Vickerson) obviously hurts, the run defensive breakdown clearly began before they got hurt.

Fun Facts – Pre Week 14

Not So Happy Fun Facts:

–┬áThe Broncos two running backs in week 13, Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball, got hit behind the line of scrimmage on 64% of their runs, the most this season for the Broncos since week 1.

– During his limited time this season Champ Bailey has just plain struggled. He has been targeted 20 times and allowed 15 receptions for 161 yards and 1 touchdown. When quarterbacks target him they have a passer rating of 114.8.

Happy Fun Facts:

– Despite being without DE Derek Wolfe against the Chiefs, the Broncos actually managed to be a better pass rushing team with DE Robert Ayers and DT Malik Jackson taking his snaps. With Wolfe on the field the Broncos average pressure on 8.61% of the time but when Wolfe isn’t on the field the Broncos get pressure 9.17% of the time. The Broncos also have three defensive lineman who rank in the top 5 of their positions for pass rushing productivity, which is total pressures divided by total pass rushing snaps. These three are Robert Ayers (5th among DE’s), Malik Jackson (1st among DT’s) and Terrance Knighton (4th among DT’s).

– RB Knowshon Moreno leads the NFL’s running backs in Win Probability Added and Expected Points Added. What this means is Moreno adds more per play in terms of production towards winning and scoring than any back in the NFL. For more info on WPA and EPA click the link.

– Safety Rahim Moore may be out by his two replacements, Mike Adams and David Bruton, haven’t given up a touchdown since they took over for him. Adams also made the game saving pass deflection at the end of the game.

Fun Facts – Pre Week 13

We’ll start with the not so happy fun facts first, get them out of the way and then get pumped by finishing the post with positive thinking!

Not So Happy Fun Facts:

– Of all the Denver Broncos players, those who produce 32.3% of the teams snaps will be free agents next year, in the top 5 in the NFL. The top 3 players lost in terms of snaps are OG Zane Beadles (846 snaps), WR Eric Decker (732 snaps) and Duke Ihenacho (615 snaps).

– The Broncos defensive line and LB’s only have 3 sacks that came less than 3 seconds and two of those came when the players was unblocked.

– The average age of Super Bowl winning coaches is just shy of 49, John Fox is 58 and turns 59 right after the Super Bowl. Of the 29 coaches to win a Super Bowl only 5 were older than 55 and of the 47 Super Bowls only 5 were won by men older than 55:
– Weeb Ewbank (age 61 in 1968)
– Barry Switzer (age 58 in 1995)
– Dick Vermeil (age 63 in 1999)
– Bill Walsh (age 57 in 1988)
– Tom Coughlin (age 61 and 64 in 2007 and 2011 respectively)

To go with that thought, coaches playoff records decline with age and have a strong correlation between them, the higher the age the lower the playoff record. On a side note, of those coaches only Ewbank was coaching an AFC team, don’t think that’s actually important but fun to notice.

Happy Fun Facts:

– Only 11.8% of Knowshon Moreno‘s run are for zero yards or less, that is good for top 5 in the league.

– The Broncos defensive line is consistently able to attack left tackles with 9 sacks against left tackles this season, that is tied with the 9 against right tackles, which are considered the weaker pass defenders.

– The Broncso are the 2nd best offense in history relative to their season’s respective average points per game, behind only the 2007 New England Patriots. What this means is the Broncos offense is 67.4% better than the league average when it comes to scoring points.

Pass Rushing Productivity – Defensive Line – 2013

*Updated With Week 17’s Data*

This table includes the rank among the players peers. Now Pass Rushing Productivity (PRP) is created by taking total pressures divided by total pass rushing snaps to get a percentage. An example is that if Phillips has 10 pressures on 97 snaps meaning he got pressure on 10.31% of his snaps. Weighted PRP on the other hand takes in the factor that whiles pressures, hits and forced holds are valuable, sacks are worth more. The value for a sack is 1.2, hit is .8 and pressure is .7 while a holding penalty is worth .6. This may seem arbitrary but it’s created by look at how many yards are lost and completion percentage going down for each. The rankings listed for total pressures and PRP is based on their position so defensive ends will be compared to defensive ends and defensive tackles will be compared to defensive tackles. If a player plays both positions, they are labeled by the position they play most often.

I’ve also include each players time to sack if they have any sacks along with how many of their sacks came when they were either unblocked or untouched.

Since WordPress does not support tables in browser, here is the link to the data.