Broncos Run Game Breakdown – Week 12

So each week I’ve decide to break down about three to six rushing plays for the game that week so we can see how the offensive line, tight ends and running backs did that week. To do this I’ll take all the plays and randomly select three plays and add more depending on the time. I’ll take these plays and break them down using clippings from the game. For each play we will start with the down and distance, the personnel formation and grouping as well as the result of the play. We will also break the play into parts, the pre-play, mid-play, and the end. To get a better view of the image just click on it, it will open in a new tab. This will be the first running breakdown I do this season. Another feature is after going through each clip you can view it as a slideshow to see how the play progresses with the notes.

I won’t be doing as many this week due to other obligations, also since the run game was so much more effective each play required more time to study and clip anyways.

Play 1

– Down and Distance: 3rd and 15
– Personnel: 3 WR, 1 TE , 1 RB
– Result: 7 Yard Gain

Pre-Play:

Den-NE KM 1 Pre Play Edit

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Facts, Trends, and The Overlooked – Post Week 12 Edition

So often after games fans tend to overreact to a few things and far too often those things they are reacting to aren’t trends, instead they are merely one game situations or results. What fans should be looking for are trends, those things that persist through multiple games, because those are the items that are actually part of the teams consistent performance. Here in Facts, Trends, and The Overlooked we will look at the big story lines and some not so big ones, and see which ones are trends, which should be watched and which are merely one game anomalies.

Trend:

Broncos Secondary is Weak Even When Healthy
– The Broncos have suffered some big injuries this season to the defensive backs, and have blamed the backups for the poor play of the pass coverage, along with a lack of pass rush, but even when healthy and now with Von Miller‘s return they have struggled. Since Von Miller’s return against Indianapolis the Broncos have only had 2 interceptions, which is tied for 29th in the league, they also haven’t had an interception since the bye. Against high caliber or efficient quarterbacks the Broncos secondary has had issues, healthy or not, Von Miller or not, this is something that is real, pay attention. Many will point to the fumbles forced by the Broncos defense against the Pats but few pay attention to the struggles of the safeties when it pertains to stopping the deep pass or the corners against fast wide receivers. While fans may be ignoring it, teams aren’t, as the results are beginning to show.

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Broncos Run Game Breakdown – Week 11

So each week I’ve decide to break down about three to six rushing plays for the game that week so we can see how the offensive line, tight ends and running backs did that week. To do this I’ll take all the plays and randomly select three plays and add more depending on the time. I’ll take these plays and break them down using clippings from the game. For each play we will start with the down and distance, the personnel formation and grouping as well as the result of the play. We will also break the play into parts, the pre-play, mid-play, and the end. To get a better view of the image just click on it, it will open in a new tab. This will be the first running breakdown I do this season.

Play 1

– Down and Distance: 1st and 10
– Personnel: 3 WR, 1 TE (lined up at FB), 1 RB
– Result: 1 Yard Gain

Pre-Play:

Den-KC Run KM 1 Yard Pre-Play Copy

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Welcome to NFL Thoughts, Charts and Tables

I suppose a quick introduction is in order, my name is Topher Doll, I’ve been a writer on a number of NFL and NCAA Football sites and communities but most recently I worked with the community of sites SB Nation and specifically the Denver Broncos community Mile High Report. I studied sociology in college and love looking at society but especially as it applies to sports. In college I also studied statistics and while many say I’m a stats head, I use them more to reinforce what I see instead of the other way around.

NFL Thoughts, Charts and Tables is a place dedicated to collecting and producing metrics and statistics that helps NFL fans better analyze the game they are watching. Taking what they see with their eyes and putting it on paper. When a fan says “That back doesn’t go down easy.” Well we have that by looking at yards after contact.  Due to the fact that I am only able to do this part time currently because to other obligations I will be only producing the data for the Denver Broncos but as I get into a better rhythm with work and family I will expand to the the rest of the AFC West and then to the NFL.

While I will do an initial burst of publishing to get the data out I won’t be doing a lot of new posting during the season, instead I’ll be updating existing tables. To find these instead of looking through old posts merely use the tabs at the top. Want to know the updated receiving ratings for the wide receivers, go to the “Offense” tab and then select the “Wide Receivers” option. That will take you to all the tables for the wide receivers. Click the links and you are there. Sadly WordPress doesn’t support tables so I will send you to Google Docs, you won’t be able to edit the table but you are free to view, copy, paste, whatever you like, I claim the right to my data and any use for monetary gain will be the cause of action against the perpetrators of the actors.

Pass Rushing Productivity – Defensive Line – 2013

*Updated With Week 17’s Data*

This table includes the rank among the players peers. Now Pass Rushing Productivity (PRP) is created by taking total pressures divided by total pass rushing snaps to get a percentage. An example is that if Phillips has 10 pressures on 97 snaps meaning he got pressure on 10.31% of his snaps. Weighted PRP on the other hand takes in the factor that whiles pressures, hits and forced holds are valuable, sacks are worth more. The value for a sack is 1.2, hit is .8 and pressure is .7 while a holding penalty is worth .6. This may seem arbitrary but it’s created by look at how many yards are lost and completion percentage going down for each. The rankings listed for total pressures and PRP is based on their position so defensive ends will be compared to defensive ends and defensive tackles will be compared to defensive tackles. If a player plays both positions, they are labeled by the position they play most often.

I’ve also include each players time to sack if they have any sacks along with how many of their sacks came when they were either unblocked or untouched.

Since WordPress does not support tables in browser, here is the link to the data.

Running Back Analysis 2013

*Updated With Week 17’s Data*

In the first table we break the runs into groups, negative, zero, short (runs that won’t reach a 1st down if run 3 times), average (runs that will get a 1st down if run 3 times), long, and breakaway. So for example if Moreno has 5 runs between 4-6 yards out of 20 runs, that means 20% of his runs went for that distance. This allows us to compare not just lengths but how often they were achieved, that way we can see who is the “home-run threat” or who may be the most reliable to not get negative yards.

Since WordPress does not support tables in browser, here is the link to the data.

In this second table we break how each running back does after contact. We take their yards after 1st contact and divide by it by attempts and we can see average yards after 1st contact, that way we are able to see how much of a backs yardage comes after that 1st hit. A back that doesn’t go down easily will be shown here. We next look how much of their yardage comes after contact. So let’s take a fictional Moreno, he averages 4.2 yards per carry and 2.1 of that is yards after contact per attempt, so 50% of his yards come after contact. But if we look at a fictional Montee Ball who averages 4.0 yards per carry and 1.0 yards after contact per attempt, only 25% of his yards come after contact. Finally we look at the average distance past the line of scrimmage a player is hit, using this we can see a few things like how well the offensive line is blocking as well as their speed to hit the hole if one opens. So if a backs average hit distance is 1.5 yards, he is hit on average 1.5 yards past the line of scrimmage.

Since WordPress does not support tables in browser, here is the link to the data.

If you prefer a visual view of the data, this is a link to a useful infograph.

Broncos Receiving Rating 2013

*Updated With Week 17’s Data*

Wide Receiver Rating (WR Rating) is basically the Passer Rating in reverse. You take the numbers (change attempts into targets, etc) of a wide receiver and insert them into the Passer Rating formula and there you go. Now interceptions may be confusing but that is actually pretty simple, that is any interception by the defense when the ball is targeted at that receiver and the WR made a mistake. Like interceptions for quarterbacks, it’s not perfect since other factors are ignored, but it still tells a big part of the story. It can, and will be, applied to other positions as well and we will apply it to the Broncos tight ends and running backs.

Something to keep in mind is yards per target (Y/T) is similar to yards per attempt (Y/A) for a quarterback and is a better metric than yards per completion/reception since it also takes completion percentage into account. I also included the catch and drop percentages which help expand the picture of how each receiver plays. I also include touchdown percentage which is touchdowns divided by target, that way we can get a picture of how often a player is catching a touchdown per target.

Since WordPress does not support tables in browser, here is the link to the data.