2013 NFL Season Awards

The time for awards has come so I felt the need to be selfish and give my winners for each award this season.

Most Valuable Player: QB Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

While there is a legitimate case for players like Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, and Jamaal Charles, the Denver Broncos without Peyton are an 8 win team at best. While all of the other three players teams would also suffer a huge loss without those players, they wouldn’t lose an extra 5-6 games without their own personal MVP. I won’t go too much into this, Peyton’s season has already been documented well enough.

Runner Up: QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots

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How Often Does Peyton Manning Target Team’s #1 Cornerbacks?

A lot of talk has gone into the Peyton Manning-Richard Sherman battle that will take place this Sunday in the Super Bowl, and while there are other topics that are ignored (the main one is the fact the Seahawks other cornerbacks are as good as some teams starting cornerback) but I wanted to take a look at this from another angle, how often does Peyton target a teams #1 cornerback in any given game? The question has been raised if Peyton will avoid or go after Sherman in this game so I wanted to see if Peyton’s tenancy was to just smartly avoid team’s top corners or if he doesn’t shy away from them at all.

To do this I set out to look at each Broncos opponent this season and see how Peyton did when, and how often, he targeted that teams top corner. We’ll then compare this level of play against the rest of the defense to see if he plays better, worse, or about the same against that top corner. Now not all #1 corners are made the same, Sherman is the best corner in the game, some teams top corners are more like #2 corners on other teams, but that doesn’t change Peyton’s mentality, does he shy away from the best corner on opposing teams? So here are the categories we’ll be look at (in order they’ll appear on the table):

- Total attempts by Peyton in that game
- Opposing teams top corner
- Attempts towards that top corner
- Attempts toward that corner divided by total attempts to get a percentage of total attempts (shows how often Peyton targeted that corner as a percentage)- Reception completed when targeting that corner
- Catch percentage allowed by that corner
- Yards allowed by that corner
- Yards per attempt allowed
- Touchdowns allowed
- Interceptions
- Passer rating against the corner

I’ll then take these metrics and apply them to the rest of the team, ignoring the top corner. You are then able to compare how they stacked up.

Here is the table.

My Takeaways

Peyton is surprisingly consistent and doesn’t shy away from top corners, now he did have a few bad games against quality corners (Vonte Davis, DeAngelo Hall and Shareece Wright in the 2nd San Diego game all had strong outings) but for the most part he was very good and didn’t avoid teams #1 corners, targeting them 16.5% of the time. The big difference seems to come in the red zone where Peyton tended to avoid them, preferring to target them when he had more space to throw the receiver open, which is harder to do in the red zone when the defense has the advantage.

How Does the Seattle Seahawks Defense Stack Up Against the Greats?

There has been a lot of talk about the Seattle Seahawks defense this year and a lot of discussion about the strength (or relative weakness) of their opponents in terms of offensive ability. Well I wanted to look at this a different way. So often we look at who teams play, we don’t look at their relative defensive ability, how well they hold opposing below their season averages. By doing this we look at a teams ability to stop a team from reaching their mean success on offense. By looking at a defense this way we are able to get a better image of how strong a defense is and it weakens the impact of playing a strong of weak schedule. Now the always amazing Chase Stuart look at this in a similar way but didn’t quite look at it from this angle, but if you are craving more stats on this, he has a great read on it here.

Warning: Sortable Tables and Intense Numbers Ahead

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End of the Season Numbers Updated

The Broncos ended the regular season strong going 13-3, here is a start to see how it happened.

- Broncos defensive line pass rushing productivity
- Broncos running back data including yards after contact, negative runs and long runs
- Broncos wide receivers, tight ends and running backs receiving data which includes yards per target, touchdown percentage and the passer rating when targeting each player

Enjoy!

Hopefully this week I’ll get more done in terms of charting snap count trends, which stats predict the winner of games the best, and much more.

Broncos Run Game Breakdown – Week 16

So each week I’ve decide to break down about three to six rushing plays for the game that week so we can see how the offensive line, tight ends and running backs did that week. To do this I’ll take all the plays and randomly select three plays and add more depending on the time. I’ll take these plays and break them down using clippings from the game. For each play we will start with the down and distance, the personnel formation and grouping as well as the result of the play. We will also break the play into parts, the pre-play, mid-play, and the end. To get a better view of the image just click on it, it will open in a new tab. This will be the first running breakdown I do this season. Another feature is after going through each clip you can view it as a slideshow to see how the play progresses with the notes.

How to Understand the Images:
- Green lines are the path of the blockers
- The blue line represents the running back and his path
- The red lines are those of the defenders
- If a line is dashed that means a player has multiple options to choose from
- I include small caption boxes that help explain what is going on, pointing with black arrows to appropriate spots on the field.

Play 1

- Down and Distance: 2nd and 10
- Personnel: 2 WR, 2 TE (1 split out wide), 1 RB
- Result: 31 Yard Gain
- Running Back: Knowshon Moreno

Pre-Play:

KM 1 Pre Play Edit

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Broncos Run Game Breakdown – Week 15 Part 2

So each week I’ve decide to break down about three to six rushing plays for the game that week so we can see how the offensive line, tight ends and running backs did that week. To do this I’ll take all the plays and randomly select three plays and add more depending on the time. I’ll take these plays and break them down using clippings from the game. For each play we will start with the down and distance, the personnel formation and grouping as well as the result of the play. We will also break the play into parts, the pre-play, mid-play, and the end. To get a better view of the image just click on it, it will open in a new tab. This will be the first running breakdown I do this season. Another feature is after going through each clip you can view it as a slideshow to see how the play progresses with the notes.

How to Understand the Images:
- Green lines are the path of the blockers
- The blue line represents the running back and his path
- The red lines are those of the defenders
- If a line is dashed that means a player has multiple options to choose from
- I include small caption boxes that help explain what is going on, pointing with black arrows to appropriate spots on the field.

Since this is a very long project I’m breaking it into two parts so it’s not an overly long, run on, article. This is part two, for part one, here is the link.

Play 7

- Down and Distance: 1st and 10
- Personnel: 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB
- Result: -1 Yard Loss

Pre-Play:

KM 6 Pre Play Edit

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Broncos Run Game Breakdown – Week 15 Part 1

So each week I’ve decide to break down about three to six rushing plays for the game that week so we can see how the offensive line, tight ends and running backs did that week. To do this I’ll take all the plays and randomly select three plays and add more depending on the time. I’ll take these plays and break them down using clippings from the game. For each play we will start with the down and distance, the personnel formation and grouping as well as the result of the play. We will also break the play into parts, the pre-play, mid-play, and the end. To get a better view of the image just click on it, it will open in a new tab. This will be the first running breakdown I do this season. Another feature is after going through each clip you can view it as a slideshow to see how the play progresses with the notes.

How to Understand the Images:
- Green lines are the path of the blockers
- The blue line represents the running back and his path
- The red lines are those of the defenders
- If a line is dashed that means a player has multiple options to choose from
- I include small caption boxes that help explain what is going on, pointing with black arrows to appropriate spots on the field.

This week I really wanted to show Broncos fans what I’ve been preaching this entire season and throughout this season. In past weeks I took 3-5 run plays at random and studied them, which lead to people saying it wasn’t a complete study so this week I am reviewing every run play to make sure people can’t claim I pick and choose my reviews. Since this is a very long project I’m breaking it into two parts so it’s not an overly long, run on, article. I likely won’t do this every week but this made a good week to do a show case.

Play 1

- Down and Distance: 1st and 10
- Personnel: 3 WR (2 WR’s and 1 TE with the 1 TE split out wide), 1 TE, 1 RB
- Result: 6 Yard Gain

Pre-Play:

KM 1 Pre Play Edit

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